What the???
I don't think it's false to say that the situation bitcoins are in now is sort of unprecedented. Everything is defying all logic. There's a post in /r/bitcoinmarkets (http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/ ... ight_here/) that seems to put it quite nicely: "do we need Jesus to come down and endorse bitcoin?"
Every single indicator known to man says "BUY," "BUY," "BUY," "BUY," "BUY." The bubble cycle, which has held for years, predicts an imminent bubble. Almost everyone expects that the auction price will close above market value. The dollar rate on bitfinex is at .1634% per day, which I can't ever recall seeing so high.
The Chinese haven't said anything in weeks. GHash.io has disappeared. /r/bitcoin is plastered with positive news day in and day out. NASDAQ, the largest stock market in the world, is looking into creating a bitcoin exchange, and people seemed to gloss over that. Western Union said they will use bitcoin to transmit money. Coinbase announced that anyone with Intuit programs can now handle bitcoins. Merchant adoption is through the roof. BitPagos is actually causing Argentinians to hold bitcoins instead of pesos to reduce risk.
And yet the price is dropping. You can argue that news doesn't matter, that TA is irrelevant, or that the bubble cycle is BS, but you can't say all of those simultaneously.
The only possible explanation I can see for this is that people are spooked by the 1MB transaction limit and the lack of development, but they haven't been before, despite my worries about it.
I think I should just give up and chalk myself off as crazy. There is obviously something going on that we don't know about. It defies logic that every single indicator is positive and the price is moving the other way. Perhaps some astute commenter can figure this one out, because I'm at a loss.
Other
- I may edit this post later.
- Days until the auction: 1
- Days until July 24: 27
- The lower boundary that breaks the cycle today according to /u/moral_agent is $529