Status as of Thursday, September 21, 2017

[GregoryGHarding]

I thought that the proof-of-work period ended in five months. Is that not true?

But even if Bitconnectcoin stays profitable, it's a sad fact for miners coming online now that the best they can probably hope for is one cent, in the best-case scenario. The last generation of miners was running at 2 cents before this bubble.

i heard the same steve, and then rumors of a ponzi scheme was going around so maybe they reversed the decision? either way, profit is on the decline, anyone who refuses to believe it is just in denial.

[micca410evo]

How many guys are over here that are willing to mine against a deficit? (i still think this will be a decent group) I certainly will till 2019/2020 when the next block halvings are going on.

[GregoryGHarding]

OT: a nice API app would be to measure average profitability over cost and stop miner when not profitable and restart when profitable again

[vinylwasp]

I thought that the proof-of-work period ended in five months. Is that not true?

But even if Bitconnectcoin stays profitable, it's a sad fact for miners coming online now that the best they can probably hope for is one cent, in the best-case scenario. The last generation of miners was running at 2 cents before this bubble.

i heard the same steve, and then rumors of a ponzi scheme was going around so maybe they reversed the decision? either way, profit is on the decline, anyone who refuses to believe it is just in denial.

Totally, agree, profit is declining for two reasons:
1.) More miners/hashrate - if there's more hashrate applied for the same reward and diff rises as a consequence while the price of the coin in BTC or USD remains constant, then you mine less coins per MH/s and profit falls measured in coins per MH/s which are then sold for the constant BTC/USD per coin.
2.) If coin prices fall while network hash (ie miners), diff, and reward remain the same, then you're mining the same amount of coins per MH/s but profits will also fall measured in $ per MH/s.

I'm not convinced all miners understand the differences above. What's happening at the moment is that we're being hit with both methods of falling prices at once. Scrypt coins are falling against BTC and then via BTC to USD, and more hashrate is piling into the network hashrate through round after round of L3+s which is increasing diff and lowering rewards per Mh/s.

These are the things we should be concerned about. Throwing in the demise of one of the most profitable coins in the face of it's published roadmap and lack of verifiable evidence is not helping, and Steve, if you've based you future business model on the absence of Bitconnectcoin, I think you need to revisit your assumptions. In this respect I hope your model looks mich better and gives you confidence to continue the development of the pool at a faster pace.

Personally I disagree with the assertion that scrypt will fall to 0.5c in January. My view is that the Chinese will re-open their exchanges once they have licences with good KYC and AML processes in place, and the market will broadly recover, and BCC, LTC, and GMC will go 2x or more in $ terms in the next 6 months offsetting 1.) above through increased price per mined coin so that we hit rock bottom in early Decemeber in $ terms (personally I hodl so only care about coin per MHS), and profits rise steadily after that.

China are terified about capital flight in the face of devaluing the Yuan for the last 18 months, but if they're afraid of that, they're more afraid of not being able to control crypto trading, and the best way to control it is to have well regulated exchanges in China they can oversee.

I also disagree that we're in a bubble. Step back and you can see that's we've just begun to emerge from the early adopter phase of a typical technology lifecyle into the Early Majority phase. In addition, 2nd gen cryptocurrencies are beginning to deliver applications that go beyond simply transfering value in the absence of a trusted third party. The tech is evolving alongside public and regulatory awareness so there's really no way to predict the future based on a 2014 past when there was only BTC, LTC, Dogecoin, and a few other Gen 1 clones that had limited functionality beyond transfer of value

[Steve Sokolowski]

I thought that the proof-of-work period ended in five months. Is that not true?

But even if Bitconnectcoin stays profitable, it's a sad fact for miners coming online now that the best they can probably hope for is one cent, in the best-case scenario. The last generation of miners was running at 2 cents before this bubble.

i heard the same steve, and then rumors of a ponzi scheme was going around so maybe they reversed the decision? either way, profit is on the decline, anyone who refuses to believe it is just in denial.

Totally, agree, profit is declining for two reasons:
1.) More miners/hashrate - if there's more hashrate applied for the same reward and diff rises as a consequence while the price of the coin in BTC or USD remains constant, then you mine less coins per MH/s and profit falls measured in coins per MH/s which are then sold for the constant BTC/USD per coin.
2.) If coin prices fall while network hash (ie miners), diff, and reward remain the same, then you're mining the same amount of coins per MH/s but profits will also fall measured in $ per MH/s.

I'm not convinced all miners understand the differences above. What's happening at the moment is that we're being hit with both methods of falling prices at once. Scrypt coins are falling against BTC and then via BTC to USD, and more hashrate is piling into the network hashrate through round after round of L3+s which is increasing diff and lowering rewards per Mh/s.

These are the things we should be concerned about. Throwing in the demise of one of the most profitable coins in the face of it's published roadmap and lack of verifiable evidence is not helping, and Steve, if you've based you future business model on the absence of Bitconnectcoin, I think you need to revisit your assumptions. In this respect I hope your model looks mich better and gives you confidence to continue the development of the pool at a faster pace.

Personally I disagree with the assertion that scrypt will fall to 0.5c in January. My view is that the Chinese will re-open their exchanges once they have licences with good KYC and AML processes in place, and the market will broadly recover, and BCC, LTC, and GMC will go 2x or more in $ terms in the next 6 months offsetting 1.) above through increased price per mined coin so that we hit rock bottom in early Decemeber in $ terms (personally I hodl so only care about coin per MHS), and profits rise steadily after that.

China are terified about capital flight in the face of devaluing the Yuan for the last 18 months, but if they're afraid of that, they're more afraid of not being able to control crypto trading, and the best way to control it is to have well regulated exchanges in China they can oversee.

I also disagree that we're in a bubble. Step back and you can see that's we've just begun to emerge from the early adopter phase of a typical technology lifecyle into the Early Majority phase. In addition, 2nd gen cryptocurrencies are beginning to deliver applications that go beyond simply transfering value in the absence of a trusted third party. The tech is evolving alongside public and regulatory awareness so there's really no way to predict the future based on a 2014 past when there was only BTC, LTC, Dogecoin, and a few other Gen 1 clones that had limited functionality beyond transfer of value

I disagree with you about the Chinese. I hope that they continue to cut themselves off from the world by closing more exchanges and banning mining. Cryptocurrencies are the future, so they will be setting themselves behind in a growing industry. People seem to forget that the Chinese are evil. They massacre thousands of their own people for disagreeing with the party line. China is not a force for good in humanity and the sooner they ban themselves out of the industry, the better.

As to the bubble issue, cryptocurrencies have had bubbles for the past 9 years, and they'll continue to have bubbles. There's been about five or six of them so far. It's just the nature of things, and I don't see why we should expect any change to that, ever.

Nobody here is talking about the real threat to the future - the Bitcoin Core developers. If Segwit2x can eliminate them, then I think that we'll be in good shape. However, I suspect that, as has always happened in the past, exchanges will continue to think that they are competent and critical to Bitcoin (which they are not) and reject Segwit2x. Apparently, the rise in price over the past day is supposed to be because of rumors that Amazon is going to accept bitcoins as payment.

That's a ludicrous idea. As I've said before, people buy bitcoins and have no idea how useless they are. If Amazon was willing to accept litecoins or other coins, then I'd say that's a big deal.

[micca410evo]

i heard the same steve, and then rumors of a ponzi scheme was going around so maybe they reversed the decision? either way, profit is on the decline, anyone who refuses to believe it is just in denial.

Totally, agree, profit is declining for two reasons:
1.) More miners/hashrate - if there's more hashrate applied for the same reward and diff rises as a consequence while the price of the coin in BTC or USD remains constant, then you mine less coins per MH/s and profit falls measured in coins per MH/s which are then sold for the constant BTC/USD per coin.
2.) If coin prices fall while network hash (ie miners), diff, and reward remain the same, then you're mining the same amount of coins per MH/s but profits will also fall measured in $ per MH/s.

I'm not convinced all miners understand the differences above. What's happening at the moment is that we're being hit with both methods of falling prices at once. Scrypt coins are falling against BTC and then via BTC to USD, and more hashrate is piling into the network hashrate through round after round of L3+s which is increasing diff and lowering rewards per Mh/s.

These are the things we should be concerned about. Throwing in the demise of one of the most profitable coins in the face of it's published roadmap and lack of verifiable evidence is not helping, and Steve, if you've based you future business model on the absence of Bitconnectcoin, I think you need to revisit your assumptions. In this respect I hope your model looks mich better and gives you confidence to continue the development of the pool at a faster pace.

Personally I disagree with the assertion that scrypt will fall to 0.5c in January. My view is that the Chinese will re-open their exchanges once they have licences with good KYC and AML processes in place, and the market will broadly recover, and BCC, LTC, and GMC will go 2x or more in $ terms in the next 6 months offsetting 1.) above through increased price per mined coin so that we hit rock bottom in early Decemeber in $ terms (personally I hodl so only care about coin per MHS), and profits rise steadily after that.

China are terified about capital flight in the face of devaluing the Yuan for the last 18 months, but if they're afraid of that, they're more afraid of not being able to control crypto trading, and the best way to control it is to have well regulated exchanges in China they can oversee.

I also disagree that we're in a bubble. Step back and you can see that's we've just begun to emerge from the early adopter phase of a typical technology lifecyle into the Early Majority phase. In addition, 2nd gen cryptocurrencies are beginning to deliver applications that go beyond simply transfering value in the absence of a trusted third party. The tech is evolving alongside public and regulatory awareness so there's really no way to predict the future based on a 2014 past when there was only BTC, LTC, Dogecoin, and a few other Gen 1 clones that had limited functionality beyond transfer of value

I disagree with you about the Chinese. I hope that they continue to cut themselves off from the world by closing more exchanges and banning mining. Cryptocurrencies are the future, so they will be setting themselves behind in a growing industry. People seem to forget that the Chinese are evil. They massacre thousands of their own people for disagreeing with the party line. China is not a force for good in humanity and the sooner they ban themselves out of the industry, the better.

As to the bubble issue, cryptocurrencies have had bubbles for the past 9 years, and they'll continue to have bubbles. There's been about five or six of them so far. It's just the nature of things, and I don't see why we should expect any change to that, ever.

Nobody here is talking about the real threat to the future - the Bitcoin Core developers. If Segwit2x can eliminate them, then I think that we'll be in good shape. However, I suspect that, as has always happened in the past, exchanges will continue to think that they are competent and critical to Bitcoin (which they are not) and reject Segwit2x. Apparently, the rise in price over the past day is supposed to be because of rumors that Amazon is going to accept bitcoins as payment.

That's a ludicrous idea. As I've said before, people buy bitcoins and have no idea how useless they are. If Amazon was willing to accept litecoins or other coins, then I'd say that's a big deal.

Did you miss the entire Gold/Silver theory? With BTC being savings and LTC being checkers? Where do we need BCH atm? Also the explanation of a bubble can be very wide (i guess most over here assume you think BTC will fall below 1k again, what imo is utopia) Also exchanges are becoming expandable with atomic swaps and the LTC lightning network is coming around the corner.

I'm glad that there are people like you being cautious, but i think the stance right now is the ones on the to cautious side and the overhyped side. Almost politics and government stuff nowadays, all the (fill in what you want [people/opinions]) in the middle are being ignored. I think crypto's are just on a good steady rise over years (see BTC from 2012 till now) pretty stable rise if you zoom out. The other part where i get confused is that you talk about lots of bubbles but the positive bubbles in BTC flattened out in a steady rise over years.

I don't see much to worry about since this baby stuff going on is on his way to become a child and please remind me when crypto's go into adulthood, i see a bright future. I ain't scared of governments banning the shit out of cryptos it was and is used a lot by black markets (same like drugs/alcohol and so on) governments can ban it, people will use it though. (way off topic -->) Another issue is social wealth distribution, society nowadays is on a way to revolution since wealth is distributed worse and worse, there will be a point where people won't accept any shit anymore from there governments and things will change. (see Venezuela for example)

I think you overestimate the Amazon part also, it is easy to have a big player integrating into something to get more attention. But now you say; crypto's only make sense in comparison to (Apple uses a new function so now it is handy on phones, but if Huawai or any other small company starts of with this function it isn't worth it), makes no sense to me.

The only threat to the future is the opposition and mostly the current holders of power and wealth, you should get a read into some writings and thoughts of Karl Marx (revolution, society and labour as subjects) it is pretty interesting.